Damian Olive

Google released its Gemini 3 model this week and it appears to be another leap forward in AI.  Also this week, Elon Musk predicted that in 10 to 20 years work will be optional. The graph below shows the human population since the agrarian revolution 12,000 years ago. The big inflection point came later with the industrial revolution.  We’ve managed to become the reigning species on a planet where we’re not the fastest or the strongest living creature. Intelligence has been our competitive...

My first contact with Warren Buffett happened in 1998. It was in a Barnes & Noble in San Francisco. Browsing through the business section, I came across a book on Buffett's investment strategy. After reading it, I became a student and fan. At the time I thought that Buffett's gift to the world was to help capitalists at every level, from individual investors to large company CEOs, make better investment decisions. Improved capital allocation should lead to wealth creation, strengthening the...

In 2004, I bought shares of United Rentals at $15 a share. In less than two years I doubled my money, selling at $30. Shortly after that the stock went to $3. At that moment, I was convinced that I was the next Warren Buffett. The stock price is now at $848.  So the next Warren Buffett missed a 56x return.  I managed to repeat this mistake a few times before realizing what was going on. What was my mistake? Some businesses are special in ways that are not obvious. At a surface level they...